Will Google's $1.65 billion stock swap deal for YouTube be the moment when we realised that no one learnt anything from the dot-com crash of 2000? Google has rarely put a foot wrong so far (well, not so wrong that the average person would notice), but handing over US$1.65 billion in stock for a company that makes practically no money at all (despite claiming to serve 100 million videos per day).
Yes - right now YouTube has almost 50% of the online video market ... which is akin to have 50% of nothing. There is not a lot of money being made out of online video today. Will there be in the future - possibly - but how ...? Video has featured prominently in the plans of Google of late, in terms of serving video ads to websites, so it is possible there is a tie-up there. Or perhaps Google just bought it because they can afford to, and it blocks anyone else buying it.
The tricky thing (well, there are probably more than one) about YouTube is that it relies ENTIRELY on other people's creative energies to sustain it. And consumers are very fickle. Put too much advertising on YouTube, and they may very well walk. There is also the potential for someone to develop something that is better. Revver has tried this, with a model that pays people if viewers click and ad after their video has played. They are hardly a dent in the side of YouTube at the moment, but then no one had heard of YouTube either 12 months ago ...
What is really worrying about the acquisition tho is the sheer size of the valuation, which is based entirely on un-monetised traffic. Ridiculous numbers were also thrown around regarding Digg.com recently by BusinessWeek, leading Red Herring to question the magazine's its journalistic methods. Arguments will no doubt continue, but in the meantime anyone who pulls in a good number of viewers must be rubbing their hands together with glee. Watch out now for a rash series of mergers and IPOs as wily start-ups look to cash out before everything crashes down again.
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